I thought I saw something familiar in James Howard Kunstler's doomsday peak oil prophecy that promises to wipe clean from Earth all the things that Mr. Kunstler can't stand. Sure enough there was – almost everything he predicts from peak oil is what he predicted a decade ago, only the villain – avenging angel? – was the Y2K bug.

But it's not Mr. Kunstler's own spotty track record that buoys my confidence. It's the track record of the fashionable peak oil/back-to-nature doomsayers, coupled with the track record of man's ability to meet and conquer challenges.

There have been four previous declarations through the 20th century that peak oil had been reached. All were wrong. It's really hard to properly measure the half of an unknown amount; harder still to project today what is extractable tomorrow. Will oil one day run out? Of course.

But as easily tapped reserves dwindle, suddenly it becomes more profitable to pursue other extraction methods. As the cost of hydrocarbons increase, alternative forms of energy once deemed unprofitable become smart investments. Hello, T. Boone Pickens.

Challenges and changes are not mile-markers of decline; they are opportunities for progress. And these are economic challenges, not social or moral ones, which will be solved by the engine of free market so long as it's left unfettered.

Peak oil? Sure. But there's no such thing as peak energy. By the time we reach peak easily extractable oil in 30 or 40 years, we'll be well into our transition to other energy sources unimaginable today.

And that's Mr. Kunstler's basic problem: He simply can't imagine solutions he can't imagine.

Trey Garrison is a freelance writer and contributing editor for D Magazine. His e-mail address is trey315 @gmail.com.